Q1 2022

Atlantic named windstorm season update

Both Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) and Colorado State University are predicting above normal activity for the 2022 North Atlantic Named Windstorm season, but lower activity than in 2020 and 2021.

By John Cooper ,

Global Chief Client Officer, Energy & Power, Marsh Specialty

30/04/2022 · 42 sec read

Both Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) and Colorado State University are predicting above normal activity for the 2022 North Atlantic Named Windstorm season, but lower activity than in 2020 and 2021.

The TSR forecast has risen slightly since December 2021 due to the current La Niña conditions, expected to persist through July to September. These conditions favour reduced trade wind strength, increased vorticity, and lower vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea where hurricanes form. Despite the expectation for a moderately active hurricane season, forecasters remain uncertain about a number of factors. These include in the forecast strength of El Niño Southern Oscillation, the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation through spring, and how warm the tropical Atlantic will be in August/September.

The chart below plots April predictions against the long-term (72 years, since records began) and 10-year averages.

Source: Tropical Storm Risk, Colorado State University, Marsh

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Atlantic named windstorm season update

Both Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) and Colorado State University are predicting above normal activity for the 2022 North Atlantic Named Windstorm season, but lower activity than in 2020 and 2021.